assumptions

inverted_flight_attitude_indicator Next up in the 4th session, what assumptions are we making when we decide to skip estimation? This produced some interesting results and likewise we realized that some assumptions are the same between the two, though there were some subtle differences in how they get worded. Like before we explored the first set then discussed those we felt had significant difference.

That we know enoughto do the right thing
The team gets more value from starting work sooner
That our work is emergent in nature
We can commit to a high level objective versus a detailed plan
We know the value of what we’re building or have a testable/measurable hypothesis of value
That what we are doing is actually not some form of estimating
Underestimating that is just another easy one, but not
Heroics are a given (to get the work done)
The estimates are wrong or don’t provide value

We can deliver working software frequently
Estimates are wrong so why bother
We have a collective sharing of the risk (with the business or person hiring us)
We can properly measure progress or ROI
That dependent items can identified just in time (timed w/our release)
We don’t need to help someone else understand why they should spend their $|£|¥|€|rubles
There are our limits to our knowledge (and we don’t always know those limits)
That we don’t need them
We’ve defined the system into a predictable state of behavior
We need to discover what we need to do
The team understands what the highest priority work is and can make a plan without estimation

In_Dive_Attitude_Indicator The 3rd session began our exploration of assumptions underneath making estimations. We explored the first 12 in detail, and then hit ones that significantly differed from these 12 in the list below the line. (People voted on their individual top assumption by placing it above the line.)

Stable (long-standing) teams that have everyone and everything they need to start/continue working
The estimate is more valuable than the time spent generating it
That the estimation in and of itself adds value
The customer knows what they need
That we know all there is to know
The stories are defined and the team understands the relative complexity of the work involved (including dependencies)
That we understand what we are estimating
That the Definition of Ready is correct
That estimated cost = value (as reflected by EVM)
If estimating “when”, that we know how many working hours there are (assuming fixed feature set)
We have a model (for estimating) that is “useful”
Team’s competency and past experiences for dealing with similar stories

We understand “it” well enough to estimate
Confidence in estimate
That we’re somewhere close to right
That we’re probably wrong/they are wrong
That further analysis will improve on our initial intuition
We know enough about the work to make relative estimates
We will actually use the estimate to make decisions
That we know our throughput
Dependencies of our gives and gets from other groups
Unknowns as risks
That past experience actually informs future returns
We have perfect knowledge
That people consider time impacts (i.e. people think too optimistically about their availability)
Risks
That is an estimate and not treated as some super-duper precise time set in stone
Things will not change/evolve as we begin
We have perfect knowledge

What Assumptions Do We Make When We Don’t Estimate?

What Assumptions Do We Make When Estimate?